Hoops officially is moving into the 2nd half, so I will focus on a 1st half recap and strategy going forward.
This past week featured some highlight-reel CBB bad beats. As I have preached, you have to keep an even keel because streaks even out over time. Several tough days in a row can make that proposition very difficult, but after you’ve been doing this as long as I have, it becomes a way of life. My unwavering goal is to provide valuable information to sharpen bettors and to teach them what I’ve learned over the past three decades in the business. My top “tough-love” lesson is that even when you are consistently on the right side of the line move, batches of losses will happen. You have to view performance over a season and seasons.
Unlike everyone else, my users get the plays as I make them myself. When you lose, I lose. When you win, I win. That bond makes me doubly invested to work every angle and find every edge I can. College basketball, while still over .500 for the season, has not been as profitable as it has been the last decade. It just has been a more difficult season, which happens. Like the college squads striving to peak in late February and March, our historically best time is ahead of us. March Madness and the Conference Tournaments is where we often make our charge.
As far as the guys who get paid to play basketball (wink, wink), I couldn’t be happier with the first half. Even with the last two weeks around break-even, the NBA still is an outstanding ~65% for the year. The All-Star Game is this weekend, which officially marks the halfway point in the season, even though mathematically, the regular season is already 5/8 done. Sometimes, we sprinkle a bit on the ASG game or the Saturday evening contests, depending on the numbers.
Betting strategy on the NBA after the break changes a touch, and those changes can be meaningful for certain matchups. Obviously, the games involving the “haves and have nots” are worth noting. Heading down the home stretch, teams are either 1) fighting to make the playoffs, 2) vying for playoff positioning/seeding, or 3) eyeing the future / draft position.
The common perception regarding this third group would be to fade these teams as they have “given up” and are tanking for the draft. We disagree. Look closer. Is the team playing young hungry players, who are playing their guts out in hopes of making next year’s roster? If so, they may be MORE motivated on a Tuesday in March than a team in the middle of the playoff pack. Also, keep in mind that this year’s draft class is considered to be one of the weaker in recent memory. Not a Zion in sight. As such, playing scrubs simply in hopes of securing a better draft position will be a rarity.
On the other end, top teams like the Bucks, the Lakers, and the Clippers will certainly be opting to rest stars as they prepare for the playoffs. As we have already seen, a rested and healthy Kawhi and Paul George means more to the Clippers than the 2 vs. 3 seed. Bottom line is before you bet on the NBA post-break, take an extra 2 minutes before the tip to review the active roster, the standings, and the schedule to see if any back to backs are in play. That’s one small example of the work we put in.
The past week made our legs tired as we were able to tread water, but not add to the bankroll.
NCAA Basketball went 8-9, with a few ML tough beats (-4.5 units). The NBA kissed its sister, going 5-5 (-.75 units). NHL went 0-2 (-.13 units) and Golf went 1-1 (-.4 units). Overall, we went 14-17 (-5.78 units).
This weekend not only gives the worker bees Monday off for President’s Day but also marks pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training! For those of you that weren’t with us last summer, KrackWins provides tons of advantage plays in the MLB all 162 games long. Stick with us and stay disciplined over the long season and you will see the results. Enjoy the weekend.